Andy's 2006 Election Predictions

Here are my predictions for the 2006 Election.

National
Senate:
According to the New York Times' 2006 Election Guide there are 40 safe Dem and 8 leaning Dem for a total of 48. There are 47 safe GOP and 2 leaning GOP for a total of 49. There are 3 toss ups.

With this information my prediction is that the GOP will maintain control of the Senate by a 51 to 49 margin.

House:
According to the NYT Guide there are 190 safe Dem and 23 leaning Dem for a total of 213. There are 187 safe GOP and 22 leaning GOP for a total of 209. There are 13 toss ups.

With this information my prediction is that the GOP will maintain control of the House by a 218 to 217 margin.

Note: I am generalizing on these predictions based on the NYT numbers. They are basically even - not the landslide that the liberals are predicting - and I think the GOP will maintain control based on National Security, Taxes, and the current strong economy.

Montana
Senate:
Conrad Burns (R) will win by 51% to 49% over Jon Tester (D)

I think Burns will pull this one out. Montana is a conservative (red) state and the only reason he is in trouble is his verbal mistakes and his association with Abramof. Tester is a true blue liberal and I don't believe that Montanans want the Patriot Act or Bush's tax cuts repealed

House:
Denny Rehberg (R) will win by 65% to 35% over Monica Lindeen (D)

This will be a landslide. Lindeen looks foolish and silly, to the average Montanan, driving around in her bio-diesel "hippy-mobile". She is in over her head.

State Initiatives:
CI-97 - Balanced Budget & Spending Limits - will pass
CI-98 - Judge Recall - will pass
I-154 - Eminent Domain - will pass
I-151 - Minimum Wage - will pass
I-153 - Prohibition of lobbying by former government personnel- will pass

These will all pass because the average Montanan will read them for the first time on the ballot and they all have a positive appeal to the average uninformed voter.